40 years, backtested against every recession
Fitted probability, 1982–present, with NBER recessions shaded. Each downturn is preceded by a rising curve.
Model probabilityNBER recession (actual)Probability rises ahead of each shaded recession — the model reading the future, backtested on data it was fit to.
Today's Treasury yield curve
Yield by maturity — the shape that drives the model
Model explorer
Drag the term spread along the fitted curve to see the implied probability
Corroborating signals
Seven independent recession indicators, each scored on its own — shown as context, not blended into the headline number