Game-level demand & pricing
A Saturday rivalry game and a Tuesday against a bottom seed are different markets. This model fits a demand curve to each of six opponent-tier and day-of-week segments, calibrated to a real ~16,400 average attendance, and prices each segment for total revenue: gate plus concessions.
Game segment
Levers
Avg ticket price — tier c · weekday
$85
Blended average across sections; section-level pricing is the production version.
Net per-cap margin
$27
Concessions, merch, and parking margin per attendee — the reason a fuller building can beat a pricier one.
Season revenue · current prices
$74.78M
vs. $74.78M at a flat $85 — $78.65M fully optimized
+$0
Current vs. flat pricing
+$3,874,108
Still on the table
18,024
Optimized avg attendance
Revenue curve · tier c · weekday
Total revenue (gate + per-cap) across the price range. The red dot is your price; the open circle is the optimum.
13,900
Projected attendance (73% fill)
$1,181,500
Gate per game
$1,556,800
Total per game incl. per-caps
The slate, segment by segment
| Segment | Games | Your price | Optimal | Attendance @ yours | Season revenue @ yours |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tier A · weekend | 4 | $85 | $117 | 19,070 | $8,543,360 |
| Tier A · weekday | 4 | $85 | $101 | 18,300 | $8,198,400 |
| Tier B · weekend | 8 | $85 | $86 | 17,300 | $15,500,800 |
| Tier B · weekday | 8 | $85 | $71 | 16,100 | $14,425,600 |
| Tier C · weekend | 7 | $85 | $71 | 16,000 | $12,544,000 |
| Tier C · weekday | 10 | $85 | $67 | 13,900 | $15,568,000 |
Reading the model
- 01
Variable pricing is worth $3,874,108 a season over a flat $85 ticket — a 5.2% revenue lift from repricing the same 41 games.
- 02
Tier A · weekend and Tier A · weekday are underpriced at a flat rate — tier a · weekend supports $117 because demand exceeds the building at $85.
- 03
Tier C · weekday optimizes at $67 — cutting price on the hardest inventory grows total revenue because a fuller building also buys concessions ($27 net per head).
Method
Each segment carries a linear demand curve calibrated so that a flat $85 average ticket reproduces roughly the club’s actual 16,400 average attendance across the slate, with attendance capped at the building’s 19,070. Revenue per game is attendance × (ticket price + net per-cap margin), and the optimizer grid-searches $45–$160 per segment.
Sellouts at a flat price indicate the clearing price is higher. Per-cap spend pushes optimal ticket prices the other way: every marginal fan also buys concessions, so the total-revenue optimum sits below the gate-only optimum, especially on weak inventory.
Demand parameters are illustrative; attendance calibration uses the club’s published 2025-26 average. In production this model would fit segment-level (and section-level) elasticities from several seasons of transaction data, add secondary-market price signals as demand sensors, and feed a nightly repricing recommendation with guardrails set by the ticketing leadership.