Partner renewal risk and category whitespace
Two things predict whether a corporate partner renews: whether they received the impressions they bought, and whether they used the activation they paid for. This model scores a simulated book of 67 partners on both, allocates a make-good budget to the accounts where it buys the most retention, and then measures the categories the club sells against a comparable-market benchmark to size what is still unsold.
Comparable set
Levers
Make-good inventory budget
$300,000
Rate-card value of bonus inventory available to cure delivery shortfalls on expiring accounts.
Make-good trigger
95% delivered
Delivery ratio below which an account qualifies for bonus inventory, and the level it is cured to.
Save-program uplift
+6 pts
Renewal-probability lift from a senior save effort on accounts still under 65%, costed at a 6% year-one giveback.
What drives the risk
Mean log-odds contribution across the 5 accounts flagged at risk, measured against each feature’s best case. Coefficients at right; the marked bar is the largest single drag on the cohort.
Delivery vs. contract
+5.20 × (ratio − 1.00)
Activation utilization
+2.90 × (used − 60%)
Account-team touchpoints
+0.11 each, cap +0.90
Category spend trend
+0.80 × trend
Years as a partner
+0.06 / yr, cap +0.70
Category exclusivity
+0.55 if held
Contract size
−0.50 × log₁₀(ACV / $100k)
Annual contract value at risk
$1,158,192
expected loss across the 36 contracts expiring this cycle, worth $7,254,000 of the $13,234,000 book, after the programs below
2 of 36
Still under 65%
$326,000
Contract value still exposed
$2,040,500
Unsold-category opportunity
$1,250,900
Underpriced uplift
Delivery against contract vs. renewal probability
All 67 partners bucketed by how much of their contracted impression count they actually received, scored before any make-good allocation. The relationship is monotonic, and steep at the bottom. That is the case for spending inventory instead of discount.
Under 85%
17 partners · avg $200,588
62% renew
85 – 95%
14 partners · avg $203,357
77% renew
95 – 105%
18 partners · avg $218,667
81% renew
Over 105%
18 partners · avg $168,944
88% renew
the under-delivered cohort — 17 accounts the club owes impressions to
The expiring book — ten highest-risk accounts
Ranked by renewal probability after both programs. Where delivery shows an arrow, bonus inventory has been assigned to that account and the probability reflects the cured ratio.
| Account | Category | Contract value | Delivery | Activation | Make-good | P(renew) | Primary risk driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P-218 | Automotive dealer group | $180,000 | 68%→95% | 18% | $48,312 | 45%from 14% | used 18% of entitled activation |
| P-215 | Automotive dealer group | $146,000 | 91%→95% | 26% | $5,417 | 60%from 49% | used 26% of entitled activation |
| P-234 | Grocery | $423,000 | 94%→95% | 27% | $5,230 | 66%from 59% | used 27% of entitled activation |
| P-225 | Quick-service restaurant | $240,000 | 90%→95% | 25% | $12,139 | 69%from 57% | used 25% of entitled activation |
| P-257 | Convenience & fuel | $91,000 | 111% | 6% | — | 70%from 64% | used 6% of entitled activation |
| P-261 | Higher education | $120,000 | 97% | 41% | — | 71% | only 2 years in the building |
| P-224 | Quick-service restaurant | $252,000 | 65%→95% | 25% | $75,658 | 75%from 38% | used 25% of entitled activation |
| P-240 | Utilities & energy | $77,000 | 80%→95% | 46% | $11,228 | 75%from 59% | only 2 years in the building |
| P-203 | Banking & credit union | $169,000 | 100% | 46% | — | 75% | no category exclusivity to protect |
| P-216 | Automotive dealer group | $232,000 | 81% | 80% | — | 79% | delivered 81% of contracted impressions |
What the make-good budget returns
Bonus inventory is charged here at full rate card, saves are charged a 6% giveback on the contract they rescue, and the payoff is counted as contribution margin over a 2.5-year renewed term rather than gross revenue. All three choices push the return down; the number below is the conservative one.
| Program | Avg P(renew) | Still under 65% | Annual ACV at risk | Term margin protected | Cost | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No program | 79.3% | 9 | $1,539,907 | — | — | — |
| Make-goods only | 83.2% | 5 | $1,222,992 | $570,447 | $300,000 | 1.9× |
| Make-goods + save calls | 84.0% | 2 | $1,158,192 | $687,087 | $364,800 | 1.9× |
8 of 18 expiring accounts below the 95% trigger receive inventory — 16,666,667 impressions owed back at a $18 blended CPM. The allocator fills them in order of probability gained per dollar, not by account size, so the last account in is usually pro-rated.
Category whitespace · median comparables
Club revenue per industry category against what a comparable market earns in the same category. An open category is credited at 55% of benchmark, since no club sells every category it could; an underpriced one is credited with 35% of the gap, the share a partnerships group can realistically move at one renewal.
$3,291,400total identified opportunity
| Category | Partners | Club revenue | Benchmark | Gap | Status | Opportunity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports betting | — | — | $1,610,000 | $1,610,000 | Unsold | $885,500 |
| Pharmacy & retail health | — | — | $690,000 | $690,000 | Unsold | $379,500 |
| Health system | 5 | $1,621,000 | $2,700,000 | $1,079,000 | Underpriced | $377,650 |
| Automotive dealer group | 7 | $998,000 | $1,890,000 | $892,000 | Underpriced | $312,200 |
| Building products & hardware | — | — | $540,000 | $540,000 | Unsold | $297,000 |
| Airlines | — | — | $470,000 | $470,000 | Unsold | $258,500 |
| Logistics & delivery | — | — | $400,000 | $400,000 | Unsold | $220,000 |
| Home services | 9 | $425,000 | $780,000 | $355,000 | Underpriced | $124,250 |
| Telecom & wireless | 3 | $900,000 | $1,240,000 | $340,000 | Underpriced | $119,000 |
| Technology & B2B software | 4 | $359,000 | $600,000 | $241,000 | Underpriced | $84,350 |
| Casino & gaming | 3 | $715,000 | $940,000 | $225,000 | Underpriced | $78,750 |
| Beer & malt beverage | 4 | $1,165,000 | $1,360,000 | $195,000 | Underpriced | $68,250 |
| Wine & spirits | 3 | $478,000 | $640,000 | $162,000 | Underpriced | $56,700 |
| Higher education | 3 | $225,000 | $310,000 | $85,000 | Underpriced | $29,750 |
| Banking & credit union | 6 | $1,519,000 | $1,450,000 | ($69,000) | At market | — |
| Quick-service restaurant | 6 | $1,335,000 | $1,170,000 | ($165,000) | Above market | — |
| Insurance | 5 | $1,300,000 | $1,040,000 | ($260,000) | Above market | — |
| Grocery | 3 | $1,242,000 | $830,000 | ($412,000) | Above market | — |
| Convenience & fuel | 3 | $507,000 | $540,000 | $33,000 | At market | — |
| Utilities & energy | 3 | $445,000 | $440,000 | ($5,000) | At market | — |
Categories running above benchmark are not opportunities. They are the ones to watch at renewal, because the partner’s own agency runs this same comparison.
Reading the model
- 01
5 of the 36 contracts expiring this cycle score below 65% renewal probability once make-goods are applied, putting $1,080,000 of annual contract value in play. The save program lifts 3 of them back over the line and leaves $326,000 exposed. Across the whole expiring book — $7,254,000 of annual value — the model's expected loss is $1,158,192.
- 02
Partners who received under 85% of contracted impressions renew at 62% on average. Partners delivered over 105% renew at 88%. That 26-point spread is the whole argument for holding a make-good budget rather than a save budget.
- 03
$300,000 of bonus inventory — 16,666,667 impressions at a $18 blended CPM — reaches 8 of the 18 accounts under the 95% threshold and protects $570,447 in renewed-term margin, a 1.9× return. That is charged at rate card; the club's cash cost for unsold inventory is far lower.
- 04
Sports betting is the single largest opportunity at $885,500 — no partner in the category at all against a $1,610,000 benchmark. On the median comparable set, total identified opportunity is $3,291,400, of which 62% sits in categories the club has never sold.
Method
Each partner’s renewal probability is a logistic model over seven features: delivery against contracted impressions, activation utilization, account-team touchpoints, years as a partner, category exclusivity, the category’s spend trend, and contract size. Delivery and activation carry the largest coefficients by design, and the two behave differently — delivery shortfalls come out of inventory management rather than the relationship, which is why they turn up in accounts the sales team believes are healthy. Only accounts in the final year of their term count toward revenue at risk. The make-good allocator is a greedy knapsack: curing an account costs the rate-card value of the impressions owed, the payoff is the probability gained times contract value, and accounts are filled in order of payoff per dollar until the budget is exhausted. Whitespace compares club revenue per industry category against a comparable-market benchmark, with an open category credited at 55% of benchmark and an underpriced one at 35% of the gap.
Three accounting choices here run against the interest of the answer. Bonus inventory is charged at full rate card even though make-goods are filled with unsold inventory that costs the club very little cash. A save is charged a 6% year-one giveback rather than a flat call cost, because saving a corporate account is a negotiation and the concession scales with the contract. And the value protected is contribution margin (72% of contract value, net of activation and servicing) over a 2.5-year renewed term rather than gross revenue in perpetuity. All three push the stated return down.
In production the coefficients would be fitted on several seasons of actual renewal outcomes rather than assumed, and delivery would come from the inventory and ad-serving systems instead of a distribution. Activation utilization would need someone to log it in the CRM — that field is empty at most clubs, and it is the real obstacle to running this model for real. The save-program uplift belongs in a holdout test rather than on a slider. Benchmarks would come from a purchased comparable set or a rights-holder survey; how aggressive they should be is a live argument at every club, which is why it is a selector here rather than a constant.
The partner book, its delivery and activation history, and the category benchmarks are all simulated from a fixed seed and stable across visits. Contract values run $22,000 to $504,000 across 67 accounts and 20 categories, totaling $13,234,000 — the renewable partner book, excluding naming rights and the jersey patch, which are negotiated on their own terms.