Integrated revenue scenario model
The other models in this suite each cover one revenue line. This one carries a single team-performance scenario through all seven at once — renewals, single-game demand, playoff dates, premium, per-caps, partnerships, and media — and simulates the season 4,000 times. The output is a distribution rather than a point estimate.
Season outlook
The scenario moves attendance, ticket yield, renewal intent, telecast audience, and sponsorship exposure together. They are not independent inputs.
Commercial levers
Season-ticket price change
+4.0%
Applied to the full book. Costs 0.45 renewal points per +1%, so the price and renewal levers pull against each other.
Renewal-intent shift
0.0 pts
What a retention program, a service investment, or a bad off-season does to renewal on top of the scenario.
Net per-cap margin
$27
Concessions, retail, and parking margin per scanned attendee — the pricing model's figure. Scaled by scenario; playoff crowds spend more.
Sponsorship new-business target
$2.6M
Net-new partnership revenue the sales plan carries. Attainment is drawn, not assumed at 100%.
Simulation
Monte Carlo trials
4,000
Seeded, so the same settings always produce the same distribution.
Driver volatility
1.0×
Widens or narrows every driver's band around its central value. 1.0× is the stated assumption set.
Commercial revenue plan
$105.0M
The number the budget is built on. The model reports how often the season clears it.
Season revenue · playoff berth
$109.1M
median of 4,000 simulated seasons, with an 80% band of $102.7M to $116.7M
$102.7M
P10 · downside
$116.7M
P90 · upside
+$19.3M
vs average season, central
79%
Clear the $105.0M plan
Distribution of season outcomes
Each trial draws all twelve drivers from a common season factor plus their own noise, then runs the full revenue model. Dark bars are the P10–P90 band; the red line is the median.
$14.0M
P10–P90 spread
$109.5M
Mean outcome
17,660
Central attendance (93% fill)
3
Central playoff home dates
Bridge from an average season
Where the +$19.3M difference comes from, stream by stream, at central driver values and the current levers.
Average season
$89.1M
Season tickets
+$1.0M
Single-game & group
+$4.9M
Playoff gate
+$4.3M
Premium & hospitality
+$0.9M
Per-caps
+$4.0M
Corporate partnerships
+$3.4M
Media & digital
+$0.7M
Playoff berth
$108.3M
Central cases, not medians — the stream deltas add exactly to the total. Percentiles are reported separately below because a median season is not a season in which every stream lands at its own median.
Revenue by stream
| Stream | P10 | P50 | P90 | Central | Share of central | Δ vs average season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season ticketsaccounts retained + backfill × book value × price | $18.1M | $18.4M | $18.6M | $18.4M | 16.9% | +$1.0M |
| Single-game & groupseats per date × 41 × blended yield | $24.5M | $26.8M | $29.1M | $26.9M | 24.8% | +$4.9M |
| Playoff gatehome dates × 19,070 × yield × playoff multiplier | $3.9M | $5.1M | $7.5M | $4.3M | 4.0% | +$4.3M |
| Premium & hospitality62 suites × license × utilization + playoff dates | $6.3M | $6.7M | $7.0M | $6.6M | 6.1% | +$0.9M |
| Per-capsscanned attendance × net margin | $19.0M | $20.7M | $22.6M | $20.7M | 19.1% | +$4.0M |
| Corporate partnershipsbook × renewal × exposure + new business | $20.6M | $21.9M | $23.2M | $21.9M | 20.2% | +$3.4M |
| Media & digitalrights fee + audience-variable + digital | $9.5M | $9.7M | $10.0M | $9.6M | 8.9% | +$0.7M |
| Total commercial revenue | $102.7M | $109.1M | $116.7M | $108.3M | 100.0% | +$19.3M |
The central column and the share column come from the central case, where the seven streams add to the total exactly. The percentile columns are marginal — each stream’s own distribution across the trials — so they do not add to the total percentiles. Per-caps are computed on scanned attendance: 728,877 admissions at the central case against 781,278 tickets distributed.
What moves the number
Each driver pushed to its low and high bound with everything else held at its central value. The vertical rule is the central-case total of $108.3M; the light half of each bar is the downside, the dark half the upside.
Season-ticket renewal ranks 12 of 12 here, worth $0.7M. Its rank follows the backfill assumption: this scenario resells 62% of the seats that lapse, and only the remainder is revenue the club does not recover. In a rebuilding season backfill falls to 25% and the same driver is worth $2.5M.
Playoff home dates
2 → 6
$9.9M
Non-plan seats per home date
10,600 → 12,700
$7.1M
Blended non-plan ticket yield
$51 → $61
$5.6M
Net per-cap margin
$25 → $31
$4.0M
Average telecast audience
40,000 → 49,500
$3.0M
Partnership renewal rate
87% → 94%
$1.5M
Scan rate (attended ÷ distributed)
89% → 96%
$1.4M
New-business attainment
65% → 120%
$1.4M
Backfill on lapsed seats
48% → 76%
$0.9M
Playoff pricing multiplier
1.22× → 1.48×
$0.8M
Premium & suite utilization
100% → 114%
$0.8M
Season-ticket renewal rate
86.5% → 93.5%
$0.7M
Reading the model
- 01
The 80% band runs $102.7M to $116.7M — a $14.0M spread around a $109.1M median, or 13% of the median. Budgeting to the midpoint commits the club to a figure that roughly half of simulated seasons fall short of.
- 02
Playoff home dates is the largest single sensitivity. Holding every other driver at its central value and moving it from 2 to 6 shifts season revenue by $9.9M, 1.4× the swing from non-plan seats per home date.
- 03
Against the $89.1M average-season central case, a playoff berth adds $19.3M and a deep run adds $44.9M. Each additional home playoff date is worth about $2.5M once gate, per-caps, suite hospitality, sponsorship exposure, and incremental media are counted together.
- 04
79% of 4,000 trials clear the $105.0M plan. The median outcome carries $4.1M of headroom over the target, so the planning question is what to do with the surplus rather than how to close a gap.
Method
Seven revenue streams are computed from twelve drivers. Season tickets are retained accounts plus backfill on lapsed seats, at book value and the chosen price; raising price costs 0.45 renewal points per percent, so the two levers work against each other. Non-plan demand fills whatever the season-ticket base leaves in a 19,070-seat building. Playoff gate is home dates at a sellout and a pricing multiplier, and is zero in the two non-playoff scenarios. Per-caps run on scanned attendance rather than distributed tickets, because announced attendance counts tickets that were paid for but never used. Partnerships are the rate-card book at a renewal rate, repriced by an exposure factor that moves with playoff dates and telecast audience, plus new business at a drawn attainment rate. Media is a fixed rights fee, an audience-variable component, and digital.
The simulation draws 4,000 trials. Each trial starts with one common season factor; every driver loads onto it with its own weight, which is what keeps attendance, ticket yield, telecast audience, and playoff dates moving together instead of independently. Marginals are triangular over a stated low, central, and high value and are clamped to hard bounds. The honest caveats: a single common factor is a crude dependence structure, and the triangular bounds are judgment rather than fitted distributions. The tornado is one-at-a-time, so it ignores interactions: attendance and yield moving together are worth more than the two bars added up. Playoff dates usually top that chart, and they are the one driver the commercial organization does not control. Production would fit the driver distributions from several seasons of actuals, replace the copula with an estimated correlation matrix, and reforecast weekly against the standings.
Simulated club, seeded data, stable across visits. Market inputs — DMA rank, capacity, attendance, and telecast audience — are public. Book sizes and margins are shared with the renewal, pricing, and lifetime-value models in this suite so the streams reconcile. The concept brief elsewhere in the suite presents the decision framing for these scenarios; this page computes the ranges underneath it, and at the stated assumption set the central case for each of the four scenarios falls inside the planning range that brief carries. Not affiliated with any professional team.